Read the following:
“The people of Europe who are defending themselves do not ask us to do their fighting. They ask us for the implements of war, the planes, the tanks, the guns, the freighters which will enable them to fight for their liberty and for our security. Emphatically we must get these weapons to them, get them to them in sufficient volume and quickly enough, so that we and our children will be saved the agony and suffering of war which others have had to endure.”
Is this quote referring to America’s current involvement in Ukraine, supplying weapons and soon tanks and possibly eventually jets?
No, it’s an excerpt from a speech Franklin D. Roosevelt made on December 29th, 1940 about the Nazi expansion throughout Europe. A message of distanced commitment and hope that the conflict would resolve without direct involvement.
The President was speaking to a weary public, with generational wounds from the Great Depression and Great War still exposed.
Below is a recording of his full speech:
Upon yesterday’s announcement that Germany and the United States are sending tanks to Ukraine, US President Joe Biden suggested “This is not an offensive threat to Russia. There is no offensive threat to Russia if Russian troops return to Russia, where they belong.”
Roosevelt spoke of a similar sentiment that peace will only arrive when the aggressor backs down:
“In view of the nature of this undeniable threat, it can be asserted, properly and categorically, that the United States has no right or reason to encourage talk of peace, until the day shall come when there is a clear intention on the part of the aggressor nations to abandon all thought of dominating or conquering the world.”
The aggressor did not back down then and it doesn’t seem like they’ll do so now.
Perhaps learning from history, the allied response today is more proactive than during WWII. Instead of waiting for Nazis to sweep westward to the Atlantic leaving Great Britain as the last man standing, today’s response is as if the allies armed Poland to the teeth.
Political bullshit aside (arguably, none of this should have happened in the first place), supporting Ukraine is the right thing to do. Still, itchy trigger fingers and nuclear-tipped ICBMs are dangerous companions. We could do the right thing and still all end up dead.
Recognizing this, the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the Doomsday Clock forward to 90 seconds to midnight, citing “unprecedented danger”.
Fucking hell. This timeline sucks.
Of course, the Doomsday Clock is metaphorical but I’m old enough to remember when it was 17 MINUTES to midnight after the end of the cold war. The 1990s really was a decade of hope and progress. It was my favourite decade by far, but maybe that’s because I was in the sweet spot of life - old enough to have freedom, young enough to have limited responsibilities and dumb enough not to know any better.
Investing charts
1: Energy companies have become cash generating machines
2: USD direction is highly dependent on whether we get a hard landing or not. Interestingly, the dollar has depreciated significantly over the past few weeks, alongside yields. It’s starting to feel like the market is looking around the corner to what’s next.
3: While the market is looking through an earnings recession, valuations leave a lot to be desired, with the price-to-sales ratio for the S&P 500 elevated relative to history.
4: Bull-bear sentiment spread is very wide. Is this a contrarian indicator?
The following is another sentiment chart, this time from TD Ameritrade, showing that retail investors are very bearish right now. Another contrarian indicator?
Final contrarian indicator: The retail trader is out. They’ve sold everything they accumulated during the pandemic. Indeed, Google search traffic related to DIY investing has plummeted as animal spirits evaporate.
I'm an 1982 baby and I agree, the 90s was the best decade so far - the last great one even. I was too young to have the freedom but no other decade comes close - 2000s or 2010s, and 2020s fucking suck so far. My theory is that the 90s was the "sweet spot" technologically - connected enough to have music, video, basic internet, and so on, but not so connected that it pulled you away from real life; fast enough that it wasn't boring but slow enough so you weren't anxious or tired. And the music was by far better than any of the decades after.